Resilience Through Sustainable Productivity Growth: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035

On 29 June, the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 was launched, which assesses ten-year prospects for agricultural commodities, and aquatic food markets at global, regional, and national levels. Global production is projected to expand by 13% over the next ten years, driven mainly by productivity improvements and intensification, with growth concentrated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase by 6%, considerably slower than production growth. Projected productivity gains raise global gross agricultural income per worker by 9% by 2035, but inherent variability in natural and economic conditions still leaves a 25% chance of a 3% decline in workers’ income. A supplementary analysis suggests that disruptions associated with the 2026 Middle East conflict will constrain fertiliser use and as a result cereal production, especially in low-income countries. In this context, international agricultural trade remains critical to balance supply and demand and mitigate adverse food security impacts.

Our Business at OECD Food and Agriculture Committee Chair and Bayer's Natasha Santos reacted to the launch stating, "In a world of growing uncertainty, resilience is built through sustainable productivity growth producing more value with fewer resources, supported by innovation, coherent policies, and open trade. This is how we strengthen food systems for farmers, businesses, and society".